As India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi draws up plans to revive the country’s economy, but his immediate concern is something he can’t control: the weather. Monsoon rains from June to September are forecast to be below normal this year, threatening to stoke Asia’s second-fastest inflation and hinder growth. A 10% drop in rainfall may add more than a percentage point to the consumer-price index, and a full blown drought risks shaving as much as half a percentage point off economic growth.

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