Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid consumed nearly $1.9 trillion of the government’s $3.9 trillion in spending in 2016, according to the Congressional Budget Office,
and with the number of people 65 and over projected to rise by a third over the next decade, Social Security and Medicare spending is projected to increase from a third of all spending in 2017 to 42 percent by 2027.
Even some liberal economists say that will amount to a transfer of funds from poor children and families toward better-off older Americans, because the budget office projects
that discretionary spending — where most programs for poor families come from — will be squeezed from 6.3 percent of the economy now to 5.3 percent in 2027, the smallest level since 1962.
“I want to leave Social Security as is, I want to make our country rich again so we can afford it.”
The pressure to break that promise will come not only from congressional Republicans
but also from his own campaign pledges to build a wall along the Mexican border, increase spending on defense, border security and infrastructure, cut taxes “big league” and control the deficit
Now, Republicans are retroactively applying those caveats to Mr. Trump’s promises, saying the president understands
that programs like Social Security and Medicare must be maintained for Americans who are currently receiving benefits but must be changed for younger Americans who may have to work longer before retiring and getting benefits.
When President Trump addresses Congress this Tuesday and follows the speech with a budget blueprint for the fiscal year
that begins in October, his White House will finally address in concrete numbers one of the central contradictions of his political career: He campaigned as the populist protector of programs for the working class, yet he has pledged to control the budget deficit, cut spending and cut taxes.
On Capitol Hill, some Republicans are hoping Mr. Mulvaney and others will change the president’s mind on far bigger targets and convince him
that structural changes to Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid — the biggest drivers of deficits that are projected to rise over the next decade — are needed to control the national debt and to preserve the programs without substantial tax increases.