북한의 비핵화 과정과 타임테이블

The two leaders won't simply strike a deal on denuclearization.
Attention will be paid to the details,... as to how it will be achieved.
To learn more about the process and the possible duration, our Ko Roon-hee turned to some experts for their insights. North Korea's denuclearization is a complex and troublesome process that requires not months, but years of effort.

Professor Siegfried Hecker of Stanford University believes the disarmament process could take approximately 15 years.
According to a roadmap drawn up with his colleagues...
North Korea first needs to halt nuclear tests and all operations at nuclear reactors,... this would be followed by the dismantling of missiles and nuclear facilities, which would then have to be monitored and inspected.
The final step requires the North to eliminate its nuclear program and join the non-proliferation treaty,... redirecting its nuclear scientists and engineers to civilian programs.

But other experts in South Korea say,... the process can be shortened to two years.

"President Donald Trump probably wants to speed up the process for his own political reasons. The U.S. presidential election will be held in 2020,... and he'll want to accomplish denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula before it happens."

Dr. Kim says the U.S. would first require the North to get rid of direct threats-- ICBMs that are capable of hitting anywhere in the U.S.
Then North Korea would have to discard its nuclear weapons and nuclear materials,... as well as decommission nuclear facilities.
Everything will ultimately have to be verified by international bodies.
The entire process would be completed within two years.

And according to experts,... Washington is unlikely to tolerate North Korea's lack of commitment.

"If North Korea does not show commitment after a series of negotiations,... the U.S. is likely to place additional sanctions and escalate its pressure on the country. If there is no significant change within a certain time period,... the U.S. will have to force it through measures that it had originally planned, but had not wished to use."

But for it to be done smoothly and swiftly,... Washington must offer certain guarantees and rewards in return.

"It must accompany denuclearization with the guarantee of the North Korean regime's safety. This entails establishing diplomatic relations with Pyongyang, concluding a peace treaty, and lifting economic sanctions. And if the international community provides aid and collaborates with the North,... the regime will be much more stable than it is now."

Experts say that as long as there is a fair share of exchange and most importantly, North Korea's full commitment to denuclearize,... it's only a matter of time until the Korean Peninsula is completely nuclear-free.

Ko Roon-hee, Arirang News.