The Bihar election has national resonance. It's a referendum on many things. The vitality of brand Modi, the appeal of suit-boot socialism, a referendum on NDA's performance and most importantly it is a verdict on what some have called the Politics of intolerance. A loss of the NDA could be catastrophic at many levels for it politically. But more than the alliance it could have a defining impact on India's growth story. The NDA would be forced to rollback an expansive reforms agenda that investors tout as essential but the opposition tags anti-poor. Going into exit poll hour there are many imponderables that could shape and define the result. The turnout, the caste chemistry, leadership and the minority vote. The exit poll data is with us but the EC ordered curfew expires in 64 minutes so in the interim we will examine what could shape the outcome.

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