There is no denying that the economy is in very bad shape. A telling sign is that, leave alone talking up the rupee, Finance Minister Ishaq Dar felt the need, once again, to say that there was no danger of default. While it is possible that Pakistan will duly make its next major debt servicing payment, due next month, the state of the foreign exchange reserves after that will give a skeletal look. It should not be forgotten that Pakistan imports fuel not just for its movement, but for the electricity it needs to power its factories, lights its homes and run the tubewells that irrigate the fields where it grows its food. It also imports the palm oil used to make vegetable ghee, as well as life-saving drugs. Already, there are signs. The loadshedding introduced recently, as well as the closure of markets and restaurants are rather desperate attempts to save on power generation, and the furnace imports that make them possible. Now that factories are closing down and putting labour out of work, the signs of hard times are not just visible, but painfully obvious.

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