Saudi Arabia and Iran Agree to Restore Ties: A Win for China, a Blow to the US?
After years of hostility and proxy conflicts across the Middle East, Saudi Arabia and Iran have agreed to re-establish diplomatic ties, and confirmed their “respect for the sovereignty of states and noninterference in their internal affairs”. The talks were hosted by China and highlight the country’s growing importance as a global economic and political power. This move could also signal a waning influence of the United States in the region. The agreement will lead to reopening embassies in each other’s countries within two months and reactivate a lapsed security cooperation pact, despite years of Iranian-backed militias in Yemen targeting Saudi Arabia with missile and drone attacks. The resumption of ties comes after years of tensions. Saudi Arabia cut ties with Iran completely in 2016, after protesters stormed the kingdom’s embassy in Tehran after Saudi Arabia’s execution of a prominent Saudi Shiite cleric. This blog will look at the implications of the agreement, including its geopolitical and economic impact, and the potential for increased cooperation between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Background and Implications
Iran and Saudi Arabia have been regional rivals for decades, driven by both geopolitical and religious factors. The rivalry between the two Islamic nations, which are less than 150 miles away from each other across the Persian Gulf, has long shaped politics and trade in the Middle East. It has a sectarian dimension - Saudi Arabia’s monarchy and a majority of its populace are Sunni, while Iran’s people are overwhelmingly Shiite - but has predominantly played out via proxy conflicts in Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon, where Iran has supported militias that Saudi officials say have destabilized the region. Tensions hit a peak in 2019 when a missile and drone assault on a key Saudi oil installation briefly disrupted half of the kingdom’s crude production. The Iran-backed Houthi movement in Yemen claimed responsibility, but US officials said that Iran had directly overseen the attack. Saudi officials have also repeatedly expressed fear over Iran’s nuclear program, saying that they would be the foremost target for any attack by the Islamic Republic.
The reopening of diplomatic ties between the two nations will have a significant impact on the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape, especially with the United States’ influence in the region waning. The agreement signals that the US cannot take for granted the pre-eminent influence it once wielded in Saudi Arabia – an ally that is charting a more independent diplomatic course. China, on the other hand, has cultivated close ties to both Iran and Saudi Arabia and unlike US officials, it does not chastise them about human rights. China wants stability in the region, with more than 40 percent of its crude oil imports coming from the Gulf, and this move could be an attempt to stabilize the region