Stifel Washington strategist Brian Gardner estimates there is a 40% chance that President Joe Biden will not seek re-election in 2024. Gardner calls this a "make or break week" for Biden's campaign as Congress returns from recess and Biden must show progress on his agenda. Gardner believes there is a 60% chance Biden will stay in the race as he enjoys proving critics wrong and may dig in his heels if more urge him to drop out. Gardner argues Democrats who want Biden to drop out lack leverage to force him out of the race if he decides to run.