Analysts warn that the oil market is underestimating the risks posed by rising tensions in the Middle East. Israel may launch retaliatory strikes against Iran's oil infrastructure, potentially disrupting up to 4% of global supply and causing oil prices to surge above $200 per barrel. Recent missile strikes between Israel and Iran have already spiked Brent crude prices by over 4%, surging above $75 per barrel. Energy analysts caution that while geopolitical risks since 2019 have not resulted in supply losses, the current situation may lead to more serious disruptions.