U.S. and European officials in mid-January 2026 warned of potential American strikes as protests and a deadly crackdown gripped Iran, underscoring regional risk. Discussions of U.S. airstrikes on Iran coincided with the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group moving toward the Persian Gulf and emergency meetings led by President Donald Trump. Human rights groups cited at least 2,400 protesters killed since late December 2025, with higher estimates reported. Iran’s internet shutdowns hampered documentation amid allegations of torture and deaths in custody. On January 14, Trump said Tehran privately agreed to pause planned executions after secret talks via Qatari and Omani channels. Oil markets, G7 reactions, and proxy risks kept tensions elevated despite a diplomatic pause.